In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
The RBI raked in a massive net income gain from foreign exchange currency sales as a buffer for the rupee during tumultuous geopolitical upheavals last year owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) flows have turned positive on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis for the first time since December 2021. Thanks to robust inflows over the past three months, the TTM overseas flows into domestic equities stand at over $7.3 billion-the most since November 2021. This has helped propel one-year Nifty returns to 12 per cent.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
The need of the hour for the government would be to tighten its fiscal belt, recommends A K Bhattacharya.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
It would not be surprising if India, the world's largest producer of milk, has to resort to imports to meet the elevated summer demand, states Surinder Sud.
Finance Minister Jaswant Singh chose a newly refurbished hall in North Block to defend his announcements in a post-interim Budget interview.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended on a mixed note on Wednesday as the euphoria about the Budget fizzled out, with investors going for profit-taking ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 158.18 points or 0.27 per cent to settle at 59,708.08 after it trimmed most of the intra-day gains. During the day, it had zoomed 1,223.54 points or 2 per cent to 60,773.44.
Per capita income has more than doubled to Rs 1.97 lakh in around nine years. Indian economy has increased in size from being 10th to 5th largest in the world in the past nine years. Seven priorities of the Budget, 'Saptarishi', are inclusive development, reaching the last mile, infrastructure and investment, unleashing the potential, green growth, youth power and financial sector.
Senior tax officials were told to focus on cash collection from the arrears so that the target for FY23 was achieved and the overall revenue position improved.
'We had tremendous faith in honorable Modiji in his second term as he was well-settled. Sadly that has been belied.'
The health of Indian banks continued to improve in 2021-22 with their balance sheet growing at double digits after a gap of seven years and their asset quality and capital position bettering, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its annual report on trend and progress of banking in India. At the same time, the banking regulator flagged the issue of slippages from restructured accounts. "Going forward, it is imperative that banks ensure due diligence and robust credit appraisal to limit credit risk," the report said.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
Although India's share in the world toy trade has marginally improved, it still lags behind China's. Toys are not China's main item of export, but about two-thirds of the toys sold globally are from China. The world exported toys worth $73.2 billion in 2021: China accounted for 66.2 per cent, or $48.5 billion of that, out of which mainland China made up $46.1 billion and Hong Kong $2.4 billion.
Eminent economist Arvind Panagariya has said India is on the cusp of returning to a high growth trajectory and voiced confidence that the country will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027-28. Currently, India is the fifth largest economy "so it's another five years.We are already in (the year) 2023. "So 2027-28, India should be the third-largest economy," Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, told PTI in an interview in New York.
'The BJP's real weapons are Hindutva, organisation and finance.'
The Union government could target a fiscal deficit of 5.8-6 per cent of nominal GDP for 2023-24, and it should continue its capital expenditure push and look to simplify the personal income tax regime, economists recommended Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team during their pre-Budget interaction on Monday. Starting last week, Sitharaman had eight pre-Budget consultations this time. More than 110 invitees representing seven stakeholder groups participated in these meetings, the finance ministry said in a statement. The stakeholder groups included representatives and experts from agriculture and agro-processing industry; industry, infrastructure & climate change; financial sector and capital markets; services and trade; social sector; trade unions and labour organisations; and economists.
'This government has always been fiscally conservative. It never resorted to fiscal profligacy.'
Moody's Investors Service, while silent on the sovereign rating on the higher-than-expected fiscal deficit numbers, expressed doubts over attaining the higher revenue targets and divestment realisation as assumed in the Budget. The Union Budget 2021-22 has pegged a fiscal deficit of 9.5 per cent for the current financial year as against the consensus 7 per cent, and 6.8 per cent for 2021-22 with a market borrowing of around Rs 12 lakh crore. It also assumes Rs 1.75 lakh crore to be scooped up from divestment.
'If we are to be a contributor to the economy, we have to reduce carbon and imports.' 'We will achieve both -- that's our target.'
An evident anti-incumbency trend against the Congress could mean an increasing likelihood of political pressure to limit expenditure cut-backs, it said.
Industry body CII has pitched for a reduction in personal income tax rates, decriminalisation of the goods and services tax and a relook at the capital gains tax rates as part of its agenda presented to the government for the forthcoming Budget. Arguing that the GST law already contains adequate penal provisions for deterrence against evasion of taxes, CII has suggested decriminalisation of GST law. Also, the applicability of prosecution provisions should not be based on the absolute amount of tax evasion but should be based on real intent to evade the taxes and a certain percentage of the tax payable, it stated.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday raised the personal income tax rebate limit, doled out sops on small savings and announced one of the biggest hikes in capital spending in the past decade as she did a tight rope walk in the Budget between staying fiscally prudent and meeting public expectations in the year before general elections.
The dividends for the economy from such a rapid rise in capital expenditure would be huge, observes A K Bhattacharya.
As part of the plan, government departments may have to surrender the unspent project-linked component of the Rs 70,000-crore (Rs 700-billion) additional gross Budgetary support at the end of the financial year.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
It is now becoming increasingly clear that rising imports have played a significant role in sustaining the buoyancy in revenues from GST, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Drink enough water, focus on your portion sizes, cut out junk food, start a walking routine, and stay consistent.
The Budget oration of the finance minister and the confidence with which she delivered it, along with the measures and the recent upsurge in the economy would all contribute to unleashing the storied 'animal spirits' and help the economy run on the growth path quite smoothly. Or so the government hopes, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
Instead of conceding the demand for a cut in personal income-tax rates, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should phase out many exemptions in both personal and corporation taxes, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'You may see some movement indicating a simpler tax regime with less exemptions but with fewer tax rates making life simpler for taxpayers.'
The windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports will generate close to $12 billion (Rs 94,800 crore) for the government in the remainder of the current fiscal while trimming profits of firms such as Reliance Industries Ltd and ONGC, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. On July 1, the government imposed windfall gain taxes on the export of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and on the domestic production of crude oil. It has also mandated exporters to meet the requirements of the domestic market first.
The government has hiked gold import duty to 15 per cent from 10.75 per cent to check the current account deficit (CAD) and rising import of the yellow metal. The duty changes came into effect on June 30. Earlier, the basic customs duty on gold was 7.5 per cent, now it will be 12.5 per cent.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
The CDS has the option to focus on key areas of capability development to fight new generation wars or get bogged down in trying to bring cosmetic changes to humour the political leadership, asserts Brigadier Narender Kumar (retd).
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
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